Open Math · Live · Side-by-side

BTC Forecast Comparison

Two independent mathematical models running side-by-side. FFT analyzes price cycles, Smart Money reads positioning data. We let the market decide which one is right — track them live, compare them in real time.

Smart Consensus

🧬 ENSEMBLE

Self-learning · 4 underlying signals · Updates every 15 min

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BTC Mathematical Forecast

FFT

14-day projection · Fourier cycle analysis

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Smart Money Positioning

POS

48h projection · Top traders L/S + funding (contrarian)

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American Edge

🇺🇸 USA

Coinbase Premium · DXY · Treasury yields · VIX

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On-Chain Bitcoin Health

🔗 CHAIN

14-day projection · Hashrate · Tx count · Active addresses · Hash Ribbon

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BTC Dominance · Altseason Signal

🪙 DOM

7-day BTC.D projection · Mean reversion + momentum · Altcoin bot regime

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FFT

Fourier Cycle Analysis

Decomposes 90 days of BTC price data into its strongest frequency components (cycles). Projects forward 14 days using the top 10 harmonics + linear trend.

  • Sees: periodic cycles, dominant frequencies, trend
  • Blind to: news shocks, regime shifts, current positioning
  • Backtest direction accuracy at 24h: 49.2% (random)
POS

Smart Money Positioning

Reads real-time positioning of top Binance Futures traders + funding rate + retail L/S. Uses contrarian logic: when smart money is one-sided extremely, price tends to reverse.

  • Sees: trader positioning, funding stress, open interest
  • Blind to: long-term cycles, mean reversion timing
  • Backtest direction accuracy at 24h: 69.6% (412 samples)
🇺🇸 USA

American Edge

Tracks US-centric macro signals: Coinbase Premium (American buying pressure), DXY (USD strength), 10-Year Treasury yields (risk-on/off), and VIX (institutional fear). Tests whether BTC follows or fights US risk regime.

  • Sees: US macro stance, dollar strength, treasury yields, S&P fear
  • Blind to: crypto-native signals, on-chain activity
  • Backtest direction accuracy at 24h: 62.6% (642 samples)
  • Backtest direction accuracy at 48h: 65.9% (618 samples)
🔗 CHAIN

On-Chain Bitcoin Health

Blockchain-native signals: hashrate (miner sentiment), daily transaction count (network demand), active addresses (adoption), and Hash Ribbon (miner capitulation indicator). These reflect actual usage of the Bitcoin network — not speculation.

  • Sees: blockchain activity, miner behavior, network health
  • Blind to: short-term market sentiment, news shocks
  • Backtest direction accuracy at 14d: 64.7% (136 samples)
  • Best for: medium-term (1-2 week) regime predictions
🪙 DOM

BTC Dominance · Altseason Signal

BTC Dominance (BTC market cap as % of total crypto market cap) signals whether money flows INTO Bitcoin (alts underperform) or OUT (altseason). 7-day forecast uses 30-day Z-score mean reversion + 3d/7d momentum continuation.

  • Sees: BTC.D mean reversion, recent dominance momentum, range position
  • Predicts: regime — altseason vs BTC-led market — NOT BTC absolute price
  • Bot use case: filter for altcoin entry timing (future integration)
  • Data: CoinGecko /global (real-time) + 90-day BTC/ETH bootstrap history

Both models are mathematical estimates, not financial advice. Backtest results don't guarantee future performance. Markets can experience regime shifts (geopolitics, regulation, exchange hacks) that no statistical model can predict. Use as one signal among many.